Sunday, November 20, 2011

Market Analysis for Week Starting Nov 21

What has changed since last week? SPY will start the week is in Oversold territory. We saw a lot of stocks bounces off profit areas, failed break outs and breakdowns from support. Generals like AMZN, CMG, and AAPL etc. are pulling back. Bonds are trying to break higher and the USD is holding up well. SPY broke short term uptrend, bounced off 200 MA and previous neckline. We formed another Chop area above a previous one which has earned a neutral rating overall long term.

Having said that, for the week ahead I am staying bullish with a tight stop below 120 area. Why? We are sitting above a previous Chop area which should act as support with a climbing 50 MA. The risk reward is perfect. If you’re going to jump out of a window it better be the basement window. Meaning if I am wrong the loss will be small.

Last week Shorts like CRM, SLV, DBA, AMED, ALK, CPA, performed well. Longs in COG & WCN Stopped me out while the rest of the longs are even or down slightly. Took some profits in ALK & closed out these positions in OIL (before pulling back hard) & CRM for nice healthy gains.

Heading into next week I have 40% of my portfolio deployed with a net long bias.

Weekly Charts


McCellan Oscillator

26wk High/Low Ratio





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